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CFA Level 2
Quantitative Methods

Expected Stock Price Calculation with Trend Model

Very Easy Time-series Analysis Trend Models

In analyzing historical stock prices, a financial analyst uses a linear trend model to forecast future prices. The model is based on monthly observations of stock prices over the last three years. The linear regression equation established is:

$$Y_t = 50 + 2.5t$$

Where:

  • $$Y_t$$ = Forecasted stock price at time $$t$$
  • $$t$$ = Time period in months (1, 2, 3, ...)

Using this linear trend model, which of the following statements about the expected stock price in the 37th month (i.e., $$t = 37$$) is correct?

Hint

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