Loading...
CFA Level 2
Quantitative Methods

Understanding Mean Absolute Error (MAE) in Model Evaluation

Very Easy Time-series Analysis Model Evaluation

In time series analysis, evaluating the accuracy of a forecasting model is crucial for ensuring its reliability. One of the simplest and most common evaluation metrics is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The MAE measures the average magnitude of the errors in a set of forecasts, without considering their direction.

The formula for calculating the MAE is given by:

$$ ext{MAE} = rac{1}{n} imes extstyleigg| y_t - ext{forecast}_t igg|$$

where $y_t$ is the actual value, $ ext{forecast}_t$ is the forecasted value, and $n$ is the total number of forecasts made.

If a forecasting model yields an MAE of 5, which of the following interpretations can be inferred about this forecasting model?

Hint

Submitted14.1K
Correct6.5K
% Correct46%