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CFA Level 2
Fixed Income

Expected Default Probability via Structural Model

Medium Credit Analysis And Valuation Structural Models

Consider a corporation that issues bonds with a total face value of $500 million. The company's default probability is estimated to be 2% over the next year. In addition, the structural model used to evaluate the credit quality of the company's debt indicates its asset value is expected to follow a geometric Brownian motion with a volatility of 30% and a drift of 5%. Given these assumptions, what is the expected default probability over the next year based on the information from the structural model?

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