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CFA Level 1
Quantitative Methods

Expected Value Calculation for Investment

Medium Probability Concepts Expected Value And Variance

A financial analyst is evaluating a new investment that has three potential outcomes based on market conditions, each with its associated probabilities and payoffs:

  • Outcome 1: The market is favorable (probability = 0.4), with a payoff of $100,000.
  • Outcome 2: The market is neutral (probability = 0.5), with a payoff of $50,000.
  • Outcome 3: The market is unfavorable (probability = 0.1), with a payoff of $0.

The analyst wants to calculate the expected value of this investment to better understand its potential return.

What is the expected value of the investment?

Hint

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