Impact of JPY Appreciation on Carry Trade

An investor is considering engaging in a carry trade involving two currencies: the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Australian Dollar (AUD). The current interest rate in Australia is 3% per annum, while the interest rate in Japan is -0.1% per annum. The spot exchange rate is 80 JPY/AUD, and the investor expects the JPY to appreciate against the AUD in the future due to a deteriorating economic outlook for Australia.

Assuming the investor borrows JPY at the lower interest rate and invests in AUD at a higher interest rate, which of the following scenarios would lead to a loss on this carry trade?