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CFA Level 2
Fixed Income

Understanding Forward Rates and Market Expectations

Very Hard Term Structure Dynamics Forward Rates

An investor is analyzing the term structure of interest rates and wants to determine future interest expectations based on current forward rates. She notices the following spot rates for a specific maturity structure from a reliable yield curve:

  • S0 (1 year) = 2.0%
  • S1 (2 years) = 2.5%
  • S2 (3 years) = 3.0%

Using these rates, she aims to calculate the 1-year forward rate starting in 1 year (F1,1). Based on her calculations, she encounters some confusion regarding the interpretation of this forward rate and its implications for expectations of future interest rates.

What does the calculated 1-year forward rate (F1,1) imply about the market's expectation for interest rates in one year?

Hint

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