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CFA Level 2
Quantitative Methods

Stationarity of AR(1) Process

Easy Time-series Analysis Autoregressive Models

Consider a time series model defined by an autoregressive process of order 1, denoted as AR(1). The model is described by the equation:

$$ Y_t = \phi Y_{t-1} + \epsilon_t $$

where:

  • $$ Y_t $$ is the current value at time $t$
  • $$ \phi $$ is the autoregressive coefficient
  • $$ \epsilon_t $$ is a white noise error term

If the value of the autoregressive coefficient $$ \phi $$ is 0.6, what is the implication of this value on the stationarity of the process?

Hint

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