ABC Asset Management is evaluating different replication methods for their equity portfolio aimed at tracking the S&P 500 index. They are particularly interested in minimizing tracking error while also considering transaction costs associated with the replication strategy. Three potential strategies have been identified:
1. Full replication, where the fund holds all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 in the same proportions as the index.
2. Sampling replication, where the fund holds a representative sample of stocks from the S&P 500, while aiming to capture the risk and return characteristics of the index.
3. Synthetic replication, utilizing derivatives such as futures or swaps to replicate the exposure of the S&P 500 without directly holding the underlying equities.
Given these options, which replication method is most likely to provide the lowest tracking error relative to the S&P 500 index?