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CFA Level 2
Fixed Income

Impact of Asset Volatility on Credit Risk Using Structural Models

Very Hard Credit Analysis And Valuation Structural Models

In the realm of credit analysis, structural models are employed to assess the credit quality of firms. Consider a firm that exhibits a stochastic process for its asset value influenced by macroeconomic variables, with a modeled asset growth rate that follows a geometric Brownian motion. The firm's probability of default is directly linked to the likelihood that its asset value falls below a certain threshold (the default barrier) at maturity. Assume that this firm's default barrier is set at the face value of a debt issuance.

If the asset value process is characterized by a volatility of 20% and a risk-free interest rate of 3%, and the firm's asset is currently valued at $10 million, what is the primary implication regarding the firm's credit risk if the asset's volatility increases significantly due to market conditions?

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