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CFA Level 1
Derivatives

Fair Price of a Futures Contract

Easy Derivative Pricing And Valuation Futures Contracts

A futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined future date and price. Futures contracts are commonly used for commodities, currencies, and financial instruments to hedge risk or speculate on future price movements. The pricing of futures contracts is influenced by various factors including the current spot price of the underlying asset, the risk-free interest rate, storage costs, and the expected dividends or yields from the asset until the futures contract's expiration.

Consider the following scenario: An investor is evaluating a futures contract for a commodity currently trading at $50, with a risk-free interest rate of 5% per year. If the contract matures in one year, what would be the fair price of the futures contract according to the no-arbitrage principle, assuming no storage costs and no dividends?

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